As one of Hoover’s assistants put it: “No one in the Bureau gave Truman any chance of winning.”. Dewey Defeats Truman: The Rarely Told Story of Chicago Tribune's Most Famous Issue. Terms & Conditions. A shift of a mere 29,000 votes of 10,661,000 cast (0.27%) in three critical states would have handed Dewey electoral victory. FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover volunteered the services of the bureau to aid his opponent’s campaign. “Shy” Trump voters — people reluctant to share their real intentions with pollsters for fear of being judged — were much more numerous than in 2016 and so the polls were off. Share on Facebook Share on Twitter. November 11, 2020 Kevin Schulman, Founder, DonorVoice and DVCanvass Conventional wisdom and a veteran political analyst who had predicted the winner in four of the five prior presidentials leading up to this 1948 election were clear; not only would Dewey win but Republicans would retain control of the House and Senate. Second, Truman’s attacks on his opponent, his party and its institutional backers were direct, personal and visceral, earning him the censure of the press and “respectable” politicians alike who recoiled from his “ungentlemanly” methods. Truman’s crushing 303-189 Electoral College victory rode on razor-thin margins in a handful of swing states. If Trump wins all eight of those states, it doesn’t matter if he loses Michigan and Wisconsin: He’s a two-term president. Dewey gained endorsements from almost every major newspaper in America. In terms of the popular vote (49.5% to 45.1%), Truman’s 11th-hour upset was the closest result since 1916. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.”Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. "Dewey Defeats Truman" was a famously inaccurate banner headline on the front page of the Chicago Tribune on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent United States President Harry S. Truman beat Republican challenger and Governor of New York Thomas E. Dewey in the 1948 presidential election in an upset victory. The Chicago Tribune printed "Dewey Defeats Truman" in reference to this prediction on the front page of its November 3 edition (the day after the election). The governor of New York since 1943, Dewey had unsuccessfully run for president twice before (failing to secure the Republican nomination in 1940, and losing to Franklin Roosevelt in 1944). He is two points further behind in the polls than John McCain was in 2008 and almost as far behind as George H. W. Bush was in 1992. Top Rated Seller Top Rated Seller. Americans were certain that President Harry S. Truman's political career was over. Appreciable numbers of Latino and black voters did, too. For pollsters, pundits, and the press, Democrat Harry Truman’s surprise victory over Republican Thomas E. Dewey in 1948 is, or ought to be, an enduring reminder about the perils of … Baime is also the author of another great micro-history, “The Accidental President”, also about Harry Truman, and his first four months in office. Dewey Defeats Truman was an infamous newspaper headline, printed (or rather, released) on November 3, 1948, the day after the 1948 presidential election, declaring that incumbent Harry S. Truman lost to challenger Thomas E. Dewey (), then-governor of New York.The opposite had in fact occurred, thus making the Chicago Daily Tribune a source of ridicule for a while ever since. The example became especially infamous as a photo of the victorious Truman holding up the paper in triumph became an iconic image. (Corrects spelling of Alistair Cooke's name in eighth paragraph of article published Nov. 1), To contact the author of this story:Niall Ferguson at nferguson23@bloomberg.net, To contact the editor responsible for this story:Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net. Like Trump, Truman also confronted institutional “deep state” opposition. It has never been wrong and I very much doubt that it will ever be.”, According to David McCullough's biography of Truman, the betting odds against the incumbent were 15 to 1 on average — in some places, 30 to 1. This historic newspaper is considered to be one of the greatest errors in media and newspaper history. Racism was rampant, foreign relations were fraught, and political parties were more divided than ever. But “ Dewey Defeats Truman,” from the Chicago Daily Tribune, is perhaps the most memorable headline in American political history, and it is the title of A.J. Hello, Sign in. Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul by Bai. "Dewey Defeats Truman" was an incorrect banner headline on the front page of the Chicago Daily Tribune (later Chicago Tribune) on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent United States president Harry S. Truman won an upset victory over Republican challenger and New York governor Thomas E. Dewey in the 1948 presidential election. The effective ground game of the Truman campaign was crucial in the final days of the race. Progressive Democrats, getting cold feet over Truman’s record on civil rights and the Cold War, defected with former Vice President Henry Wallace to form the Progressive Party, while Dixiecrats rallied around Senator Strom Thurmond and the States’ Rights Democratic Party. Ironically, this example is a downplay of the trope. Or that onetime farmer … (I wasn’t around in 1948, but I vividly remember the stunned facial expressions of my left-leaning Oxford colleagues 28 years ago. " Dewey Defeats Truman " was an incorrect banner headline on the front page of the Chicago Daily Tribune (later Chicago Tribune) on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent United States President, Harry S. Truman, won an upset victory over Republican challenger and Governor of New York, Thomas E. Dewey, in the 1948 presidential election. Baime. But I can also see the despised underdog incumbent’s triumphant grin as he holds that erroneous front page aloft. The Tribune staff, based on the early returns, decided Dewey would be the next President. Indeed, the intraparty schism was worse for Truman than for Trump. And if it happens, the postmortem will go like this. When the decision to print this paper was made, returns were coming in very slowly and time was running out before the deadline for the edition. Since the election results were a complete shock to the media, the Chicago Daily Tribune got caught with the headline "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN." And now the estate of the late Thomas E. Dewey wants to make that a reality. First, the incumbent sought to dominate the political battlespace by scheduling thrice-daily events in dozens of states — even invading territory (like Dewey’s home turf in New York) that was assumed to be “hostile.” Airport rallies and whistle-stops in battleground states (California, Illinois, Ohio and Pennsylvania) leveraged the incumbent’s “populist everyman” image. On Oct. 29, he told a roaring crowd in Queens to “throw the Galluping polls right into the ash can.”. The Los Angeles Times called him “the most complete fumbler and blunderer this nation has seen in high office in a long time.” Alistair Cooke of the Manchester Guardian published an article on the day of the election entitled “Harry S. Truman: A Study of a Failure.”. Not only did Truman win the election, he … DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN is arguably the most famous headline in the history of the Chicago Tribune newspaper and is every publisher’s nightmare on every election night. -- In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events—the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. In his book “Out of the Jaws of Victory,” the journalist Jules Abels noted that Dewey’s pitch for unity was “an issue which had no visceral appeal to the average American. “I’m calling this trip a crusade. Harry S Truman Signed Framed 1962 Letter & Dewey Defeats Photo Display JSA . Trump Might Already Be Out of Luck in 2024, It’s Trump’s Money, Not His Brand, That Should Worry Him, Jim Simons Proved the Textbooks Wrong — Almost. Brother, can you spare a dime? PoindexterOglethorpe: Sep 2020 #2: Response to question everything (Original post) Sun Jul 19, 2020, 05:03 PM . In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events - the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. A good example is A J Baime’s new book, “Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle For America’s Soul”. Top Rated Seller Top Rated Seller. He also fared unexpectedly well with Midwestern farmers, who had largely supported Dewey’s first presidential bid in 1944. Sometimes it seemed that he was asking Americans to achieve unity by being united behind him.”. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events—the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. Only good fortune saved NBC’s mistake from being a “DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN” moment for the burgeoning television age. Going into the 1948 election cycle, the president’s approval rating hovered in the low- to mid-30s (below Trump’s 35% approval nadir in December 2017). From United States +C $11.46 shipping. It was hard to understand what Dewey was driving at. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. All of this is not to predict that 2020 will be 1948 revisited. One of our Best Presidents ever. Dewey Defeats Truman Join us for a virtual conversation with best-selling author, A. J. Baime, to discuss his latest book, the thrilling story of the 1948 presidential election, during which Truman mounted a remarkable comeback and staked a claim for a new course for America. On Sept. 9, pollster Elmo Roper announced that “Thomas E. Dewey is almost as good as elected … I can think of nothing duller or more intellectually barren than acting like a sports announcer who feels he must pretend he is witnessing a neck-and-neck race.” The Crossley Poll of Oct. 15 placed Dewey ahead in 27 states. ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’ Review: The Truman Show A month before the election, nine out of 10 U.S. newspapers endorsed Truman’s challenger. As I write this, it’s early morning just before the polls open. Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. Behind the Picture: ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’ Harry Truman. In what is generally regarded as the greatest upset in American political history, Truman beat the heavily-favored Republican governor of New York, Thomas Dewey, by a substantial Electoral College margin, 303 to 189, but by fewer than three million votes in the popular vote. Free shipping and pickup in store on eligible orders. In the Electoral College, Truman won 303–189. His re-election would be a surprise right up there with 1948 — or with 1992 in the U.K., where the Conservatives under John Major defied a recession to defeat Labour for the fourth consecutive election. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events - the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. Racism was rampant, foreign relations were … The final polls that year gave Labour a 1.5% lead; Major’s Tories won by 7.6% — a nine-point miss by the pollsters. Review written by Steve Nathans-Kelly. Photographer: Irving Haberman/IH Images/Getty Images, I can see the headline already: “Biden Defeats Trump.”. “What’s the Use of Going Through with the Election?” was the caption of a typical cartoon two weeks before Election Day. Market data provided by Interactive Data. The governor of New York since 1943, Dewey had unsuccessfully run for president twice before (failing to secure the Republican nomination in 1940, and losing to Franklin Roosevelt in 1944). Hey, didn’t Trump kick the virus’s butt and bounce back to the campaign trail? It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. Powered and implemented by Interactive Data Managed Solutions. Truman held together the New Deal coalition of urban Catholic, Jewish and organized-labor voters, and integrated the Northern black vote as a new pillar of Democratic Party support. —– [Post-Election Update: I was wrong, especially in the national tone of the election’s outcome. He was previously a professor of history at Harvard, New York University and Oxford. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events—the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. The photograph with Truman holding aloft the paper has become one of the most famous newspaper photos of the century. Initiatives such as the “Never Trump” movement and the Lincoln Project would not have surprised Truman, who likewise faced grave doubts over his electability from powerful figures within the Democratic Party. I had made some bets on a Tory majority of more than 20 seats, but for foolishly trivial sums.). Dewey Defeats Truman. The 14th Amendment could be his barrier to a future run. Dewey of course lost and the Democrats … Try Dewey Defeats Truman The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul (Book) : Baime, A. J. : "From the New York Times best-selling author of The Accidental President comes the thrilling story of the 1948 presidential election, one of the greatest election stories of all time, as Truman mounted a history-making comeback and staked a claim for a new course for America." It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. Perhaps the probability of a Trump win in 2020 is only 11%. Thomas Mallon's novel, "Dewey Defeats Truman", is a marvelous look at a small town in the throes of change. By morning, the headline was proven wrong. ... Strom Thurmond, founder of the States’ Rights Democratic Party (popularly known as the Dixiecrats); and Thomas Dewey, the popular New York governor and … Dewey had summed up the prevailing view in 1944: “Never argue with the Gallup Poll. Like Biden, Dewey ran a low-risk, low-profile campaign, assuming the inevitability of his victory, on the advice of his highly experienced campaign managers. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell My Personal Information | Ad Choices  President Truman was elected with a comfortable margin of 49.6 percent of the popular vote to Dewey’s 45.1 percent. By morning, the headline was proven wrong. "Dewey Defeats Truman" By A.J. Gallup left out four states; and Roper did not bother to make any state-level forecasts at all. C $31.56. President Truman was elected with a comfortable margin of 49.6 percent of the popular vote to Dewey’s 45.1 percent. Not This Time! The economy is recovering, but after a savage recession. Remarkably, the three-way split in the Democratic base did not scupper Truman. The Chicago Tribune printed "Dewey Defeats Truman" in reference to this prediction on the front page of its November 3 edition (the day after the election). It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.”Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. Yet Truman won not just because of polling errors, but because of late-stage momentum. In terms of the national popular vote, the three major national polls — Crossley, Gallup and Roper — underestimated Truman’s final share by 4% to 12%. How much do you worry about the coronavirus? Midterm elections netted the Republicans 55 seats in 1946, even more than the Democrats’ 41 seats in 2018. A shift of only 3,500 votes would have flipped Ohio to Dewey; of 9,000, California; of 16,500, Illinois. … The example became especially infamous as a photo of the victorious Truman holding up the paper in triumph became an iconic image. The governor of New York since 1943, Dewey had unsuccessfully run for president twice before (failing to secure the Republican nomination in 1940, and losing to Franklin Roosevelt in 1944). Click here to read the text of Truman’s 11/4/1948 remarks in St. Louis, Vincennes, Indiana and Cincinnati, Ohio. The Detroit Free Press dismissed Harry S. Truman as “intellectually unqualified” to remain president. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events—the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. By ANDREW GLASS. But 11% is not zero. ETF and Mutual Fund data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Dow Jones Terms & Conditions: http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/html/tandc/indexestandcs.html. Set in 1948 in Owosso, Michigan - the real hometown of Thomas Dewey - the townspeople are transitioning from the war years to the Cold War years. November 11, 2020 Kevin Schulman, Founder, DonorVoice and DVCanvass Conventional wisdom and a veteran political analyst who had predicted the winner in four of the five prior presidentials leading up to this 1948 election were clear; not only would Dewey win but Republicans would retain control of the House and Senate. Arguably the most famous headline in the newspaper’s 150-year history, DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN is every publisher’s nightmare on every election night. Baime, a journalist and the author of “The Accidental President,” brings the epic back on stage with “Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle for America’s Soul,” a straightforward narrative studded with evocative detail and surprising factoids. A review (Original post) question everything: Jul 2020: OP: One of our Best Presidents ever. There were also signs of a late Trump rally in Pennsylvania — I expect him to win in Scranton, Biden’s birthplace — and Arizona. A significant reason for Dewey’s complacency was that the pollsters gave Truman no chance. Buy It Now. S&P Index data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. or Best Offer . Quotes delayed at least 15 minutes. A jubilant Harry Truman held up a Chicago newspaper emblazoned with the (erroneous) headline, "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN," St. Louis, November 4, 1948. Truman came second in all nine of the Gallup Poll’s post-convention surveys. Sherman A1 (33,656 posts) 1. All rights reserved. Dewey Defeats Truman The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul (Book) : Baime, A. J. : "From the New York Times best-selling author of The Accidental President comes the thrilling story of the 1948 presidential election, one of the greatest election stories of all time, as Truman mounted a history-making comeback and staked a claim for a new course for America." Like Biden, Dewey therefore entered the race as a known moderate with ample public-policy experience. Mindful of California’s electoral importance, he picked a Californian running mate, Governor Earl Warren. Have a confidential tip for our reporters? The obvious antecedent to Dewey Defeats Truman is Baime’s own The Accidental President (2017), which applies the author’s signature gift for gripping historical narrative to Truman’s tumultuous first four months in office following Franklin Roosevelt’s sudden death. A good example is A J Baime’s new book, “Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle For America’s Soul”. Sherman A1: Jul 2020 #1: The mother of a friend of mine was a secretary. To name just two, there are fewer undecideds going into the final phase of this election, and there has been unprecedented early mail-in voting. 11/02/2018 12:00 AM EDT. Dewey Defeats Truman The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul (Book) : Baime, A. J. : "From the New York Times best-selling author of The Accidental President comes the thrilling story of the 1948 presidential election, one of the greatest election stories of all time, as Truman mounted a history-making comeback and staked a claim for a new course for America." Thursday, 17 December 2020 Share. Truman’s last-ditch effort to get out the vote mobilized infrequent Democratic voters and scooped up undecided voters and Republican defectors, since (as the pollsters’ postmortem ruefully noted) “about 1 voter in 7 made up his mind within the last two weeks and three fourths of them voted for Truman.”. Ironically, this example is a downplay of the trope. American elections before the 1960s were highly labor-intensive, with the door-knocking and get-out-the-vote efforts coming largely from volunteer labor — for Democrats, from organized labor; for Republicans, from the Chamber of Commerce. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. Dewey of course lost and the Democrats … -- My Halloween treat for one and all is 72 years old, dating back to just before Biden’s sixth birthday. Dewey Defeats Truman! America by 1946 were sick of the Democrats, who had held the US presidency since 1932. Dewey Defeats Truman (For Realz This Time!) Now A.J. 311 likes. (W. Eugene Smith / LIFE Picture Collection) SEE DETAILS What was it that secured Truman’s victory and consigned the Chicago Daily Tribune’s headline writers to eternal obloquy? As Truman’s defeat was considered certain, nobody bothered to place any Democratic donkeys on the set. With a comfortable margin of 49.6 percent of the late Thomas E. wants. A fractured country & Conditions: http: //www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/html/tandc/indexestandcs.html the House of two! 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